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October Supply and Demand Update
Author: Scott Stiles, Extension Economist

USDA released its monthly supply and demand forecasts October 10th. A summary of month-to-month changes for the major row crops can be found at this link: Market Outlook Report October 2019 Also included are current NASS yield and harvested acreage estimates for Arkansas.

Report Highlights:

Rice: Long-grain supplies increased this month on a .8 million increase in production to 127.5 million cwt.  State average yields were increased in Arkansas and Texas by 50 pounds and 300 pounds respectively.  No changes were made this month to harvested acreage.  Total demand held steady at 164 million cwt. for long-grain.  Projected 2019/20 long-grain ending stocks were increased .8 million cwt to 20.1 million, down 38 percent from last year.  The projected 2019/20 long-grain season-average farm price was reduced $0.20 per cwt to $11.80 or $5.31 per bushel, compared to $4.86 per bushel for 2018/19.

Soybeans: Soybean production is forecast at 3.55 billion bushels, down 83 million from the September estimate. The U.S. soybean yield is projected at 46.9 bushels per acre, down 1 bushel from last month.  Harvested area was reduced 300,000 to 75.6 million acres.   With a 92 million bushel reduction in beginning stocks, soybean supplies for 2019/20 are forecast at 4.483 billion bushels; down 175 million. With a small 5 million bushel increase in soybean crush, ending stocks are projected at 460 million bushels, down 180 million from last month and down 453 million from last year. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2019/20 is forecast at $9.00 per bushel, up 50 cents reflecting smaller supplies.  Arkansas’ state average yield was unchanged this month at 50 bushels.  However, harvested acreage was reduced 50,000 acres to 2.6 million—the lowest total since 1960.

Cotton: The 2019/20 U.S. cotton supply and demand estimates show slightly lower production and ending stocks compared with last month. Production was lowered to 21.7 million bales, largely the result of a reduction in Texas. Domestic mill use and exports are unchanged from last month, and ending stocks were reduced 200,000 bales. At 7.0 million bales, U.S. ending stocks in 2019/20 are projected at 36 percent of use, compared with 27 percent in 2018/19. The 2019/20 season-average price for upland cotton is forecast at 58 cents per pound, unchanged from last month and 12.5 cents lower than in 2018/19.

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