By Bobby Coats, Professor of Economics, Agricultural Economist
Join us at 10 a.m. CST on Thursday, May 30 for the U.S. and Global Rice Outlook webinar with Nathan Childs. This webinar will examine the outlook for the U.S. and global rice markets in 2019/20 based on the May 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. For the U.S., total supplies are projected to be up more than 6 percent, a result of an extremely large carryin more than offsetting a smaller crop. U.S. prices are expected to face downward pressure throughout 2019/20 due to the supply build-up and near-record global production. U.S. exports are expected to increase in 2019/20, a result of the larger supplies and lower prices. Despite expanded total use, U.S. ending stocks are projected to again increase in 2019/20 and would be the highest since 1985/86. In the global rice market, production is projected to drop slightly from the 2018/19 record, mostly due to smaller crops in China and India. Global rice trade in 2020 is projected to be up more than million tons from this year, with the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa accounting for most of the import growth. India and the U.S. account for most of the expected export growth in 2020. Ending global rice stocks in 2019/20 are projected to be record high.
About the presenter: Nathan Childs is an agricultural economist with USDA’s Economic Research Service. His current activities include managing ERS’ contribution to the rice situation and outlook program and supporting the Department’s annual Baseline forecasting activities. Nathan joined ERS in 1987. During his career, he has worked on a variety of topics including U.S. rice consumption patterns, global trade liberalization, farm program analysis, and supported emerging market projects to Taiwan, China, Vietnam, and Haiti. In the early 1990s, Nathan was editor of USDA’s weekly Agricultural Outlook magazine.