USDA will release its monthly WASDE (supply/demand report) and Crop Production reports on Thursday October 12, 2017 at 11:00 a.m. Central time.
The following comments summarize private analysts’ pre-report expectations for tomorrow’s USDA reports.
Ahead of the October 12th USDA supply/demand report, industry analysts’ project the U.S. soybean yield to be near the USDA’s September estimate of 49.9 bushels per acre with an average guess of 50 bushels per acre (pre-report range of 49.1 – 52.1). Traders see U.S. production increasing by 16 million bushels to a record 4.447 billion bushels.
Private estimates of US 2017/18 soybean ending stocks average 447 million bushels (range of 375 – 500 million) compared USDA’s September estimate of 475 million. A decline in 2017/18 ending stocks may result from the recent USDA September 1 soybean stocks estimate. Lower quarterly stocks would in-turn reduce 2017/18 beginning stocks in this month’s supply/demand balance sheet.
The trade sees the U.S. average yield increasing this month to 170.1 bushels per acre (range of 168.7 – 171.5) versus the September USDA estimate of 169.9 bushels per acre. The average estimate for 2017-18 corn ending stocks is 2.289 billion bushels (range of 2.168 – 2.450 billion) versus the September USDA estimate of 2.335 billion bushels.
The average U.S. wheat ending stocks estimate is 946 million bushels (range of 928 – 971 million) compared to the September estimate of 933 million bushels.
U.S. production is projected at 21.2 million bales (20.2 to 21.5 range of estimates) as compared to last month’s pre-hurricane Irma estimate of 21.8 million bales. With a lower production estimate in October, ending stocks are expected to be reduced to 5.5 million bales (5.2 to 6.3 range) as compared with the September estimate of 6 million bales.