USDA released its’ monthly World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates on September 12th. A summary of monthly changes to U.S. production, yields and ending stocks for soybeans, corn, long-grain rice and cotton can be found at this link: USDA Sept 2017 WASDE
Production was projected at a record 4.431 million bushels, up 50 million bushels from last month on a .5 bushel per acre increase in yield to 49.9 bushels. The higher production estimate was offset by a 25 million bushel reduction in beginning stocks and a 25 million bushel increase in demand. With increased supplies and lower prices, soybean exports were raised to a record 2.25 billion bushels leaving ending stocks unchanged at 475 million. The 2017/18 U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $8.35 to $10.05 per bushel, down $0.10 at the midpoint.
Changes for 2016/17 include higher exports, higher crush, and lower ending stocks. Exports were increased 20 million to 2.17 billion bushels. With crush raised 5 million bushels, ending stocks were projected at 345 million bushels, down 25 million from last month.
Total U.S. long-grain supplies were reduced 5.6 million cwt from last month due to a lower production forecast. In the September Crop Production report, NASS reduced the 2017/18 U.S. crop size by 5.3 million cwt to 127.1 million, primarily on lower acreage. NASS incorporated FSA certified acreage data this month in adjusting forecast acreage lower. The average long-grain rice yield was also reduced by 10 pounds to 7,267 pounds per acre. The reduction in 2017/18 supplies results in both lower projected domestic use and residual and exports. Long-grain ending stocks were reduced 1.6 million cwt to 16.1 million, the lowest level since 2003/04. The 2017/18 long-grain season-average farm price was raised $0.50 per cwt at the midpoint to a range of $12.00 to $13.00 or $5.40 to $5.85 per bushel.
Corn production was forecast at 14.184 billion bushels, up 31 million from last month. Corn total supply is up from last month, as a larger crop more than offsets a smaller 20 million bushel decline in beginning stocks. Feed and residual use for 2017/18 was raised 25 million bushels with a larger crop and lower expected prices. Corn used for ethanol for 2017/18 was projected 25 million bushels lower this month at 5.475 billion, based on usage trends during 2016/17 and expectations of lower exports. Other industrial use was also lowered 50 million bushels. With supply increasing and usage falling, corn ending stocks increased 62 million bushels from last month to 2.335 billion. The projected range for the season-average producer price was lowered 10 cents on both ends to a range of $2.80 to $3.60 per bushel.
Production was raised 1.2 million bales to 21.76 million, with notable increases in the Southwest and Delta regions. Both harvested and planted acreage was raised, with abandonment slightly higher this month. Beginning stocks were revised 50,000 bales lower, while 2017/18 exports were increased by 700,000 bales to 14.9 million. Domestic mill use was unchanged at 3.35 million. Ending stocks are forecast 200,000 bales higher this month, at 6.0 million—3.25 million above 2016/17. The forecast producer price range for the marketing year was reduced 1 cent on each end, giving a range of 54 to 66 cents per pound.
The complete September USDA WASDE report can be found at this link: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report (WASDE)
The next monthly update of the USDA WASDE is scheduled for October 12, 2017.