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08
Sep
2017
Cotton Market Teleconference September 13
Author: Scott Stiles, Extension Economist

The monthly Ag Market Network Teleconference will be on Wednesday, September 13, 2017 at 7:30 a.m CDT.  Discussion will focus on the September 12 USDA supply/demand and Crop Production reports as well as recent hurricane impacts on 2017 U.S. production.

The teleconference number is 1-712-775-7085 and the access code is 969119 to listen by phone. During the program you can submit questions for the panel through Facebook (AgMarketNetwork) or Twitter (@AgMarketNetwork).  If you cannot join the teleconference live you may listen to an archived recording at www.AgMarketNetwork.net.

More details on the teleconference can be found at this link: September 13, 2017 ag market network meeting

 

Market Comments:

USDA’s August forecast of U.S. production, the first of the season to be based on actual field surveys, took place before the arrival of Hurricane Harvey.  In the August 10 supply/demand report, USDA pegged production at 20.545 million bales.  This was higher than trade expectations. However, subsequent damage from Hurricane Harvey may prompt a downward revision to last month’s production estimate.  A definitive number of bales lost along the coastal areas of Texas has yet to be determined. Preliminary estimates have generally been in the range of 350,000 to 500’000 bales.

An active Atlantic hurricane season continues to keep the cotton market on edge.  The main focus of the futures market today is the potential impact of Hurricane Irma on cotton production in southeastern states.  In August, USDA’s production estimate for Georgia and South Carolina was a combined 3.36 million bales or 16% of U.S. production. Presently, these two states appear to be the most at risk of damaging winds and rainfall amounts.  A shift eastward in the storm path to include North Carolina and Virginia could impact as much as 20% of U.S. production. As a result, December 2017 cotton futures are again trading at the contract highs made in March.  Since trading to a low of 66.64 cents on August 17, December futures have rallied over 9 cents to a high of 75.75 on September 8th.


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