By Archie Flanders, Agricultural Economist
Large ending 2016-2017 market year stocks become beginning stocks for the 2017 market year, and current 2017 crop price forecasts reflect abundant supplies that impact prices. Although long-grain rice ending stocks-to-use for the 2017 market year are projected low by historical measures, large carry-over supply from the previous market year are depressing current commodity price forecasts. Projected increases in livestock and poultry products for 2017 and 2018 will marginally reduce corn and soybean supplies as feed inputs increase and create support for prices, but a return to long-term average crop prices will require climatic conditions that result in yield reductions. Projected 2017 foreign ending stocks-to-use for corn and soybeans are approximately equal to long-term averages. Thus, without surpluses in foreign supplies, U.S. weather conditions that are only moderate in severity could have positive effects on U.S. prices.
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