By Archie Flanders, Agricultural Economist
Large ending 2016-2017 market year stocks become beginning stocks for the 2017 market year, and 2017 crop price forecasts reflect abundant supplies that impact prices. Projected increases in livestock and poultry products for 2017 and 2018 will marginally reduce supplies as feed inputs increase and create support for prices, but a return to long-term average crop prices will require climatic conditions that result in yield reductions. Early season conditions have already diminished U.S. corn yield potential. U.S. soybean yield potential is average to slightly greater than average. Projected 2017 foreign ending stocks-to-use for corn and soybeans are approximately equal to long-term averages. Thus, without surpluses in foreign supplies, only moderate U.S. drought conditions could have positive effects on U.S. prices.
More current supply and demand information: June Supply and Demand Information