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Market Outlook with Supply and Demand for Field Crops – May 2017
Author: Arkansas Row Crops

By Archie Flanders, Agricultural Economist

The May 2017 WASDE report for the supply and demand situation of field crops includes the first price forecasts for 2017 crops. Large ending 2016 market year stocks become beginning stocks for the 2017 market year, and 2017 crop price forecasts reflect abundant supplies that impact prices. Projected increases in livestock and poultry products for 2017 and 2018 will marginally reduce supplies as feed inputs increase and create support for prices, but a return to long-term average crop prices will require climatic conditions that result in significant yield reductions. Evaluating historical U.S. statistics indicates that both corn and soybeans are due to have yields that are less than trend line yields. Both crops have had three consecutive years with yields greater than trend line yields which has contributed to excess supplies. Field crops have positive commodity price correlations, and decreased corn and soybean U.S. yields leading to increased prices would positively impact rice prices. More current supply and demand information: May 2017 Supply and Demand

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