July 24, 2015 No. 2015-22
Dr. Jarrod Hardke, Scott Stiles, & Dr. Yeshi Wamishe
We’re now at about 14 consecutive days with nighttime temperatures of 75+ degrees. It looks like we’ll reach 20 days before we see any relief. The best news at the moment is that the current forecast indicates that in a week we’ll fall back into lower daytime temps and nighttime may follow into the low 70s and upper 60s. This is what we need as the majority of the crop reaches heading and starts into grain fill.
It is possible – stress possible, not necessarily likely – that the southern half of the state is at greater risk to have been impacted by the temperature pattern of late. More rice has been heading for much longer in the southern half while the northern half of the state is just getting into high gear. It could be a tale of two halves of the state once again, this time with a line drawn in grain quality and possibly yield.
There are many “jailbreak” situations out there as far as rice weed control is concerned. Remember that our herbicides are not designed to be used for “salvage” treatments. In fact there’s not really such a thing as a salvage herbicide application. Let’s be smart and not waste any applications chasing weed control misses that aren’t economical to clean up – or even possible to clean up.
According to DD50 enrollment, the crop should be approaching 80% heading which is well ahead of NASS estimates (Table 1). Also included for reference are the projected dates for harvest – the time at which we will reach 20% grain moisture (Table 2).
Concern of Current Weather on Bacterial Panicle Blight
Recently high nighttime temperatures have been of a concern for rice grain quality loss. To read more on the concern related to elevated nighttime temperatures go to: http://www.arkansas‑crops.com/2015/07/17/arkansas-rice-update-17-15/. Extended nighttime temperatures together with some hours of dew at night may favor bacterial panicle blight (BPB) disease of rice if they align with the boot to flowering stages of rice. Windy rain or simple splashing rain also favor the bacteria spread from infected rice panicles to healthy ones.
Research has shown BPB as more severe in fields planted late, with thicker stands, and with high N rates. To read more on BPB in Arkansas and the effects of these cultural practices see this fact sheet: http://www.uaex.edu/publications/pdf/FSA-7580.pdf.
BPB is largely seedborne. Although the incidence and severity of BPB was relatively low in the past three years (2012-2014), it is difficult to predict its incidence this year. The bacteria might have been carried in healthy, seemingly clean seed used for planting – that is the seed and their parent plants may have been asymptomatic (showing no signs of infection despite the presence of infection). They could live in the soil but may not be for years; however, they may live in rice residues longer than just the soil. Variability in the causal bacterial species, a possibility of hosts other than rice, and rice-after-rice production management systems are other complicating factors to predict the disease incidence.
Does scouting for BPB help? It depends. It helps to know the history of your field, susceptibility level of your chosen cultivar, and to know what may have lowered the quality and yield of your rice in your specific field. On the other hand, scouting for BPB does not help because nothing can be done to salvage the crop if detected. The earliest you can detect in commercial fields is at grain fill. Blank panicles remain upright unlike the healthy panicles. Panicles can be blanked due to other factors such as high or very low temperatures, failure in pollination, neck blast, and stem borer among others. Therefore, typical symptoms (Fig. 1) would help in your scouting for BPB. In some instances panicles may not be fully infected (Fig. 1) or not all panicles are affected (Fig. 2).
Management for BPB starts before planting. Genetics of your cultivar, seed quality for planting, planting date, seeding rate, and nitrogen rate are a few known management options affecting BPB disease. There are no chemical options either for seed treatment or spray application registered in the U.S. to protect rice from BPB.
Fig. 1. BPB-infected panicles with blighted kernels that first appeared white to light gray with a dark-brown margin on the bottom third of the developing grains.
Fig. 2. Healthy panicles (green) are at early grain fill while infected panicles are tan (best timing for an easy recognition of BPB).
Weekly Market Summary
The September contract finished 6.5 cents lower Friday at $11.045, but 12.5 cents higher on the week. The contract posted solid gains Tuesday and Wednesday. A favorable Export Sales report Thursday pushed trading up to $11.23 at one point. Thursday’s Export Sales report included two 60,000 metric ton (MT) new crop sales of long-grain milled rice to Iraq and Iran. This pushed prices higher in early trading. However, upside momentum stalled near the 200-day moving average of $11.20 and finished the day 1 cent lower.
CBOT Rough Rice futures settlements ($/cwt)
CBOT September 2015 Rough Rice daily futures
There has been much discussion in recent weeks and months about drought impacts on rice production in Southeast Asia. On Tuesday the deputy head of Thailand’s disaster prevention department indicated that drought conditions are easing in much of the country as rainfall had increased in recent weeks. The government is still asking farmers to delay planting until August to conserve water.
New crop rough rice basis was steady this week. Fall delivery basis is 0.55 to 0.75 / cwt under September futures at mills and generally 0.80 to 0.95 / cwt under futures delivered to dryers.
Monday: Crop Progress
For the week ending July 19, U.S. rice condition ratings improved to 72% good-to-excellent, compared to 71% last week and last year. Crop conditions improved week-to-week in Arkansas, Mississippi, and Missouri, with conditions holding steady in other states. NASS also indicated that 40% of the U.S. crop was at “heading”. This is ahead of the five-year average pace of 33% for the week.
Thursday: Export Sales
Old Crop (2014) shipments of long-grain rough rice reached a 6-week high last week, coming in at 892,387 cwt. Mexico and Venezuela were the only two destinations.
Net sales were down sharply from the previous week at 191,780 cwt. Sales to Mexico and Venezuela of 809,074 cwt were noted, but a cancellation by an unknown origin of 617,294 cwt offset much of last week’s long-grain rough rice sales.
There were four (4) new crop (2015) sales of long-grain rough rice reported to El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and an unknown origin. Total new crop sales amounted to 266,649 cwt, bringing the 2015/16 marketing year Total Commitment up to 637,026 cwt.
Long-grain milled rice shipments reached a 4-week high last week at an estimated 805,640 cwt. Haiti, Ghana, and Mexico accounted for roughly 90% of exports. Old Crop Net Sales were also up last week at 503,560 cwt, with the largest buyer being Haiti.
The recently announced sale of 60,000 MT to Iraq showed up in new crop sales. Also, a 60,000 MT sale to Iran was included. Total new crop long-grain milled sales last week were 120,180 MT. With last week’s sales to Iraq and Iran, Total Commitment (sales + shipments) for the 2015/16 marketing year is now running well ahead of last year’s pace with sales of 122,339 MT compared to 880 MT at this time last year.
NYMEX crude oil and diesel futures prices were lower again on Friday and both look to settle lower for the fourth straight week. Friday’s session low for crude oil was $47.72; the lowest trade since April 1. Diesel’s low trade Friday was $1.6308; lowest since January 30 of this year. The energy markets remain under pressure from weak economic data out of China, U.S. Dollar strength and this week’s reported rise in U.S. oil drilling rigs. Keep in mind the low made this year in diesel futures was $1.58 back in January. Commodities as a group remain very weak with gold and coper now trading at multi-year lows. The energy markets are caught up in the commodity sector bear market. Continue to watch the diesel futures charts for fuel buying opportunities.
NYMEX Diesel, daily nearby futures.
Upcoming USDA reports:
August 12 (11:00 a.m. central):
- Crop Production
- Supply/Demand (WASDE)
NASS Crop Progress is released each Monday afternoon at 3:00 p.m. central.
FAS Export Sales are released each Thursday morning at 7:30 a.m. central.
USDA-FSA information on projected 2014 PLC payment rates is available at this link:
The DD50 program can be accessed at http://DD50.uaex.edu. It has now been improved for use on both your computer and your mobile devices.
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This information will also be posted to the Arkansas Row Crops blog (http://www.arkansas-crops.com/) where additional information from Extension specialists can be found.
More information on rice production, including access to all publications and reports, can be found at http://www.uaex.edu/rice.
We sincerely appreciate the support for this publication provided by the rice farmers of Arkansas and administered by the Arkansas Rice Research and Promotion Board.
The authors greatly appreciate the feedback and contributions of all growers, county agents, consultants, and rice industry stakeholders.