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08
Jan
2015
USDA Reports
Author: Scott Stiles, Instructor-Economics

A number of major USDA reports will be released Monday January 12, 2015. Of particular interest will be the NASS Crop Production Annual which will provide the final U.S. crop production estimates for 2014.   The closely watched monthly World Ag Supply/Demand Estimates will be released as well.

Monday, 1/12/2015

TimeReportSource
11:00 a.m.Crop Production - AnnualNASS
11:00 a.m.Winter Wheat SeedingsNASS
11:00 a.m.Rice StocksNASS
11:00 a.m.Grain StocksNASS
11:00 a.m.World Agricultural Supply and Demand EstimatesWAOB
11:00 a.m.Cotton GinningsNASS
11:00 a.m.Crop ProductionNASS
11:15 a.m.World Agricultural ProductionFAS
11:15 a.m.Grains: World Markets and TradeFAS
11:15 a.m.Cotton: World Markets and TradeFAS
11:15 a.m.Oilseeds: World Markets and TradeFAS
2:00 p.m.Season-Average Price ForecastsERS

 

Much discussion has been centered upon the wider than normal difference between FSA certified corn and soybean acreage and the acreage estimates used by USDA in the recent monthly WASDE reports.  Average pre-report trade guesses for the major U.S. crops are shown below:

Estimates for 2014 final US crop production

  • Corn production (23 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is 14.349 BB, range of estimates are 14.171 – 14.554 BB. USDA November estimate was 14.407 BB and 2013 final corn production was 13.925 BB.
  • Corn yield (23 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is 173.3 BPA, range of estimates are 171.3 – 174.3 BPA. USDA November estimate was 173.4 BPA and 2013 final corn yield was 158.8 BPA
  • Corn harvested acres (20 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is 82.765 MA, range of estimates are 82.057 – 83.527 MA. USDA November estimate was 83.097 MA and 2013 final corn harvested acres were 87.668 MA.
  • Soybean production (23 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is 3.956 BB, range of estimates are 3.844 -4.020 BB. USDA November estimate was 3.958 BB and 2013 final bean production was 3.358
  • Soybean yield (23 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is 47.6 BPA, range of estimates are 46.8- 48.2 BPA. USDA November estimate was 47.5 BPA and 2013 final bean yield was 44.0 BPA.
  • Soybean harvested acres (21 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is 83.044 MA, range of estimates are 82.126 -83.403 MA. USDA November estimate was 83.403 MA and 2013 final bean harvested acres were 76.253 MA.

Estimates for ‘14/15 US ending stocks

  • Wheat (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate is .666 BB, range of estimates are .636 – .699 BB. USDA December estimate was .654 BB.
  • Corn (21 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is 1.927 BB, range of estimates are 1.710 – 2.081 BB. USDA December estimate was 1.998 BB
  • Beans (21 analysts surveyed) average estimate is .393 BB, range of estimates are .355 – .452 BB. USDA December estimate was .410 BB

 Estimates for 2015 US winter wheat planted area

  • Total winter wheat area (18 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is 42.564 MA, range of estimates are 41.0-44.0 MA. 2014 US total winter wheat area was 42.399 MA
  • Soft red winter wheat area (18 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is 8.039 MA, range of estimates are 7.432 – 8.739 MA. 2014 US SRW wheat area was 8.498 MA.

Estimates for ‘14/15 world ending stocks

  • Wheat (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate is 194.33 MMT, range of estimates are 190.90 -196.00 MMT. USDA December estimate was 194.90 MMT
  • Corn (13 analysts surveyed) –  average estimate is 191.19 MMT, range of estimates are 186.50 – 193.00 MMT. USDA December estimate was 192.20 MMT
  • Beans (14 analysts surveyed) –  average estimate is 89.35 MMT, range of estimates are 87.40 – 90.55 MMT. USDA December estimate was 89.87 MMT

source: Reuters


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