Link to slide set: Nov 2014 USDA WASDE
The USDA World Ag Outlook Board released its monthly Supply/Demand estimates yesterday, November 10.
This months’ corn estimates contained the only surprises for traders. Pre-report guesses leaned toward higher corn production. However, the USDA reduced the national average corn yield by .8 bushels to 173.4 bushels per acre. Month-to-month yield reductions were made in the key corn producing states of Iowa, Minnesota, Kansas, Ohio, and Michigan. Collectively, these 5 states account for 37% of total corn acreage.
No adjustments to planted or harvested acreage were made this month. Total production was reduced by 68 million bushels to 14.407 billion bushels. Total demand was increased by 5 million bushels. Ending stocks were reduced by 73 million bushels to a total of 2.008 billion. The November ending stocks estimate is up sharply from last year’s 1.236 billion and is the highest level seen since 2004. Average producer prices for the 2014/15 marketing year were placed in the range of $3.20 to $3.80 per bushel.
Note: this month’s U.S. corn yield and production estimates are both records.
As expected, the USDA increased this months’ soybean production estimate. Fourteen states saw yield increases this month. Eight states are expected to average 50 bushels per acre or higher. These eight states account for nearly half the U.S. total soybean acreage. The November USDA estimates contained a record U.S. average yield of 47.5 bushels per acre; up .4 bushels from October. Production was increased 31 million bushels to a record 3.958 billion bushels. Increases to production were offset by a 10 million bushel increase in domestic crush and a 20 million bushel increase in exports. Thus, ending stocks held steady month-to-month at 450 million bushels. The current ending stocks estimate is the highest seen since 2006. The range of average producer prices was unchanged from October at $9.00 to $11.00. In contrast, the average producer price received for the 2013 marketing year was $13.00 per bushel.
Long Grain Rice:
Small changes to U.S. rice production were made this month. The state average yield estimate for Mississippi was increased 200 pounds per acre. Total long grain production was increased 300,000 hundredweight (cwt.) to a total of 160.3 million hundredweight. Exports were reduced by 2 million cwt. to 68 million. Total use now stands at 167 million cwt, up from 157.1 last year. The November estimate of ending stocks was increased 2.3 million cwt to 28 million. The range of average producer prices was unchanged from last month at $12.20 to $13.20 per hundredweight.
The USDA increased U.S. cotton production in November. The U.S. average yield was increased 7 pounds per acre to 797 pounds. Total production was increased 140,000 bales to 16.4 million. The most notable yield increase was for Texas. The state average yield estimate was increased 14 pounds per acre from last month to 597 pounds. No adjustments were made to domestic mill use (3.8 million) or exports (10 million). Ending stocks were increased from 4.9 million bales in October to 5.1 million bales in November. The range of producer prices for the 2014 marketing year are 56 to 64 cents per pound.