May 9, 2014 No. 2014-9
Dr. Jarrod Hardke and Scott Stiles
Most people should be smiling right now – from the top of the state to the bottom. This past week was probably the best one we’ve had so far this year in terms of conditions to get ground worked and crops planted. The pace was definitely fast and furious up until last night.
The most recent crop progress report has the state at 64% planted. That figure is sure to make a significant jump with the next report, probably somewhere around 85%. When we emerge from the current rainy conditions it looks like there could be a great weather window to wrap up rice planting for the year.
After fighting and complaining about a rain for most of the spring, I think most of us can agree that this bout of rain is right on schedule as we were starting to lose soil moisture. Overnight rainfall amounts ranged from trace amounts to 1.5” across the Delta. More rain is supposed to be on the way over the weekend and early next week.
The one problem with the timing of the rain really had more to do with the wind that preceded it. I seriously doubt much acreage received the pre-emergence herbicide applications we wanted out because of the strong winds. You can talk to a 20 mph wind but it won’t listen. Those that did get an application out – let’s hope you did it during those occasional moments when the wind laid down. There may be a good opportunity to make some delayed PRE applications next week. If we’re unable to do that, then the early post-emergence applications are going to be extremely critical.
Figure 1 shows the updated planting progress for 2014 (black line) compared to previous years. The report for last week moved planted acreage to 64%.
The DD50 Program http://DD50.uaex.edu is up and running. If you have problems with the program or suggestions for future improvements I want to hear about it –
email@example.com / 501-772-1714.
AV-1011 Bird Repellent
This spring, a number of people inquired about AV-1011, the bird repellent seed treatment. We received an emergency exemption to use this product to prevent stand loss due to blackbird feeding. Some were still skeptical about its use and there was some confusion over price of the product – both of these factors probably led to people not using it when they should have.
Earlier this year where some fields should have been treated and weren’t – it wasn’t pretty. The impact of bird feeding has become obvious.
Picture 2 shows two fields that were water-seeded at 100 lbs/acre on the same day. The field on the left was treated with AV-1011; the field on the right was not treated.
We don’t necessarily expect to see this drastic of a difference every time, but this is certainly the reason why use of the product was justified in certain situations. It’s still probably best to focus on your most at-risk fields with this treatment – isolated by time or location; near tree lines; water-seeded; and broadcast-seeded.
Keep in mind that we were able to use this product this year only under an emergency exemption – we may or may not have it available to use next year. The Section 18 label expires June 1, 2014.
As of Thursday (5/8), new-crop (September) rice futures settled at $14.485 per cwt ($6.52/bu, no basis). The contract showed some strength Monday, refilling last Friday’s chart gap and settling 4.5 cents higher. However, the last three trading days have all consisted of lower closes and a collective loss of 8 cents per cwt. This morning’s USDA Export Sales report was positive, but not enough to lift prices. For the week ending May 1, the USDA reported old crop net sales of 33,100 MT which were up sharply from the previous week.
New Crop rice futures under pressure from the significant planting progress that has been made over the past week. On Monday, NASS’ Crop Progress report indicated that Arkansas’ rice planting progress is now very close to the five-year average pace. Another bearish factor to watch is today’s key reversal higher in the U.S. Dollar. If the Dollar continues higher for an extended time this will likely have a negative effect on commodity prices – crude oil included.
Tomorrow (5/9) at 11:00 a.m. Central, the USDA will release its’ monthly crop production and supply/demand reports. USDA’s May report will include the first regular monthly projections for the 2014/15 marketing year. The May supply projections by the USDA include the average all rice yield and abandonment percentage used in the Agricultural Outlook Forum projections released in February. These also include the planted acreage intentions from the March 31 Prospective Plantings report. These variables combined indicate that 2014/15 all rice production would be 211.5 million cwt, up from 189.9 million cwt in 2013/14. This production forecast and the import and demand forecasts from the USDA February projections result in the 2014/15 ending stocks increasing 1.5 million cwt year-over-year to 28.8 million cwt.
Some changes have been made to the online DD50 Program this year. Hopefully these and future changes will continue to make the program easier and more efficient to use. If you have any questions, or suggestions for improving the program, please let us know. You can access the online program here: http://DD50.uaex.edu/.
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This information will also be posted to the Arkansas Row Crops where additional information from Extension specialists can be found. Please visit the blog at http://www.arkansas-crops.com/
We sincerely appreciate the support provided by the Arkansas Rice Research and Promotion Board for this publication.
The authors greatly appreciate the feedback and contributions of all growers, county agents, consultants, and rice industry stakeholders.