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2013 Wheat
Author: Scott Stiles, Extension Economist

$8.60 has been a price level to watch lately in the July ’13 wheat contract.  This month the July contract has traded up to or slightly above $8.60 in six (6) sessions this month.  After settling at $8.61 on Tuesday and Wednesday this week, Thursday’s trade resulted in a technical chart formation called a “Key Reversal”.

These formations can be very reliable in signaling a trend change in markets.  Yesterday’s formation is what’s considered to be a reversal “down”.  The graphic below points out three such reversals in the July contract that have occurred since mid-July this year. In all cases, prices traded lower for the following 3  to 4 trading sessions.

The graphic below also illustrates the use of a “support” trend line.  It indicates that price support may be found at the $8.40 level.  This will be a critical price point to watch for indications of price direction.  If the $8.40 price level fails as  support,  previous lows at $8.20 and $7.80 may come into play as future price objectives.

You can access the CME July 2013  Wheat chart at this link:


Some key fundamental factors to follow in the wheat market are:

  • Potential limits on Russian wheat exports.
  • Australian drought conditions (as well as U.S. High Plains and Delta).
  • U.S. wheat export prices relative to the Black Sea region (U.S. prices currently $30/MT higher).
  • Future direction of Corn prices (compare the price charts for corn and wheat).








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