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June 9 USDA Supply/Demand Preview
Author: Scott Stiles, Extension Economist

Below are pre-report ending stocks estimates for both old and new crop balance sheets.  The June 9 report will still utilize the March acreage intentions for production estimates.  Future monthly supply/demand reports will incorporate the June 30 acreage report numbers.  It is possible that an additional acreage survey will be completed in August, due to the slow corn and soybean planting progress, particularly in key areas of the eastern Cornbelt.

The 2011 pre-report ending stocks numbers are reflecting either fewer corn acres or reduced yield or both.   It is too early to know with certainty how many intended corn acres shifted to soybeans.  Parts of the western Cornbelt are rumored to have expanded corn acres beyond March intentions.  The soybean stocks estimates reflect the prospect of additional acreage due to shifts in corn, rice, and cotton acres.  There is also the prospect that the 2010 soybean export estimate will be reduced slightly in tomorrow’s report.

U.S. average yields may be no better than trendline in 2011, given slower than normal planting progress.  However, ample subsoil moisture in many parts of the U.S. will partially compensate for delayed planting.  The biggest unknown is the availability of time for crops to mature and reach full yield potential.  An open fall harvest is an absolute must.

2010-2011 Ending Stocks Estimates (Million Bu., Cotton: Mln. Bales)

CropUSDA MayPre-Report EstimateRange
Corn730 706 565 – 780
Soybean170 176 142 – 195
Wheat839 842 824 – 868
Cotton1.75 N/AN/A

2011-2012 Ending Stocks Estimates ( Million Bu., Cotton: Mln. Bales)

CropUSDA MayPre-Report EstimateRange
Corn900 771520 – 950
Soybean160 170 124 – 214
Wheat702 659 495 – 742
Cotton2.50 N/AN/A

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